title: Identification of high caries risk children using prevalence of filled surfaces as predictor variable for incidence.
abstract: The purpose of the present study was to determine the validity of prevalence of filled surfaces at 9 years of age as a screening criterion for prediction of future caries incidence. Retrospective data were available for 114 children who had participated in an incremental dental care program from 7 to 16 years of age. There was a significant positive correlation between prevalence of filled surfaces (FS) at age 9 and increment of surfaces filled during the subsequent 7 years. Thus only 13% of the variation in increment of surfaces filled was explained by the variation in prevalence of FS. Subjects who had eight or more filled surfaces at 9 years of age were classed as the Expected H-group (22 subjects), while the Real H-group consisted of the 22 subjects who experienced the highest increment of surfaces filled between the ages of 9 and 16. Sensitivity and diagnostic power were both 45%, specificity 87%. While sensitivity decreased with increasing FS score at age 9, specificity and diagnostic power increased. A detailed analysis of the increment of surfaces filled each year from age 11 to 16 revealed that a considerable number of subjects not included in the H-groups also received many fillings.
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000367:Age Factors; D002648:Child; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000209:etiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000628:therapy; D003793:Dental Restoration, Permanent; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012306:Risk