title: A multi-echelon menu item forecasting system for hospitals.
abstract: A multi-echelon system was designed to generate statistical forecasts of menu-item demand in hospitals from one- through twenty-eight-day intervals prior to patient meal service. The three interdependent echelons were: (1) Forecasting patient census, (2) estimating diet category census, and (3) calculating menu-item demand. Eighteen weeks of supper data were utilized to analyze diet category distribution patterns and menu-item preferences, to test forecasting models, and to evaluate the performance of the forecasting system. A cost function was used to evaluate the efficiency of the mathematical forecasting system and manual technique over a nine-week period. The cost of menu-item forecast errors resulting from the use of adaptive exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins formulations was approximately 40 per cent less than costs associated with the manual system.
mesh_terms: D003201:Computers; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D004032:Diet; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005518:Food Preferences; D005521:Food Service, Hospital; D005522:Food Services; D006801:Humans; D008612:Menu Planning; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010361:Patients; D013223:Statistics as Topic