Hospital prognosis of myocardial infarction with respect to risk factors.
Out of 9922 patients with ischaemic heart disease [IHD] hospitalized during a decade, clinico-pathological data of 796 patients with acute myocardial infarction [MI] were analyzed in detail. With the aid of a logico-probabilistic model, the author made an attempt to quantify the individual risks of the hospital prognosis of MI and to obtain the so-called cumulative risk of MI. The prognostic relevances of the characters investigated were tested by Bayes' theorem. By reducing the matrix "character-disease", the original number of 201 characters was reduced to 34, which were divided into five classes, as follows: a] anamnestic data about the occurrence of risk factors, b] data on coronary pains, c] objective clinical, electrocardiographic, or roentgenological findings, d] duration of the praehospitalization phase, e] patient's sex and age. The cumulative risk [sum of partial risks] amounted to 60% and less in MI with a favourable hospital prognosis [that is, at lethality lesser than 5%]; to 61%--100% with a medium fair hospital prognosis [at lethality from 6% to 30%], and to more than 101% with a poor hospital prognosis [at lethality of 41% and higher]. A comparative test of the prognostic index, performed in a different referral area, showed a relatively good practical usability of the criteria described.
D000208:Acute Disease; D000368:Aged; D003604:Czechoslovakia; D005260:Female; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D011379:Prognosis; D012306:Risk