title: A forcast of requirements for the treatment of chronic renal failure in Victoria.
abstract: Using a Markov chain mathematical model, dialysis and transplantation requirements for Victoria in the next five to ten years have been predicted. The numerical constants in the model are based on data from past Australian experience. Predictions showed a steady rise in numbers requiring dialysis and transplantation. Home dialysis numbers will probably double within five years but hospital dialysis numbers will only increase by 50% in the same period. If as many patients as possible were trained for home dialysis on entering the treatment programme, home dialysis numbers could triple in five years, but hospital dialysis numbers would be correspondingly reduced. It is hoped that this model will enable planning authorities to allocate resources for renal failure treatment in a more rational manner.
mesh_terms: D001315:Australia; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D006285:Health Planning; D006437:Hemodialysis, Home; D006801:Humans; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000628:therapy*; D016030:Kidney Transplantation; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010044:Outpatient Clinics, Hospital; D006435:Renal Dialysis; D013997:Time Factors; D014184:Transplantation, Homologous; D014850:Waiting Lists