A probabilistic model of bathing beach safety.
An improved mathematical model for bathing beach safety is proposed. It is derived by joining the probability of infection from a given dose (Poisson distribution and the probability of acquiring such a dose (lognormal distribution). Even in the absence of better clinical and epidemiological data, the model permits an assessment of relative risk from certain hazards and the design of more meaningful bacteriological standards for individual beaches.
D001419:Bacteria / Q000472:pathogenicity; D001424:Bacterial Infections / Q000209:etiology*; D001493:Bathing Beaches / Q000592:standards*; D004781:Environmental Exposure; D005243:Feces / Q000382:microbiology; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D009518:New York; D012306:Risk; D014871:Water Microbiology; D014876:Water Pollution