Approximate formulae (deduced from a mathematical model) for the characteristics of the interepidemic and epidemic periods of some virus diseases.
By a qualitative analysis of the solutions of the mathematical model equations (describing the morbidity and susceptibility evolution in a viral epidemics), approximate formulae for the extreme values of the variables and for the duration of the main phases of a multiannual cycle are deduced. These formulae were validated by numerical simulation of the solutions, leading to the exact values of the mentioned essential characteristics of the diseases propagation.
Cristea
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Stefan S. Nicolau Institute of Virology, Bucharest, Romania.
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Copelovici
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D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004198:Disease Susceptibility; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological; D012383:Romania / Q000453:epidemiology; D014777:Virus Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission