Risk factors in perforated peptic ulcer disease: comparison of a new score system with the Mannheim Peritonitis Index.
OBJECTIVE
To construct a score that would accurately predict outcome for patients with perforated peptic ulcers.


METHODS
Retrospective study.


METHODS
University Hospital.


METHODS
173 patients who were operated on for perforated peptic duodenal ulcers over a 14 year period.


METHODS
Results of multivariate discriminant function analysis of derived set of clinical variables known to be associated with high mortality, and comparison with the Mannheim Peritonitis Index.


RESULTS
Serious coexisting medical illness, acute renal failure, white cell count of more than 20 x 10(9)/l, and male sex were the most significant factors influencing mortality. The Hacettepe score for perforated peptic ulcer was established using these four variables. The sensitivity was 83%, the specificity 94%, and the overall predictive accuracy 93%. The corresponding figures for the Mannheim Peritonitis Index were 75%, 96%, and 94% respectively.


CONCLUSIONS
The Hacettepe score is useful in predicting whether a patient will survive after perforation of a peptic duodenal ulcer.
Department of General Surgery, School of Medicine, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey.
G
G
Altaca
I
I
Sayek
D
D
Onat
M
M
Cakmakçi
S
S
Kamiloğlu
D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D004381:Duodenal Ulcer / Q000150:complications* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D006801:Humans; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010439:Peptic Ulcer Perforation / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery; D010538:Peritonitis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology