The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba.
A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kourí Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the beginning of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficiently accurate to warrant its use as a practical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.
Division de Epidemiologia, Instituto Pedro Kourí, La Habana, Cuba.
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Aguirre
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Gonzalez
D003462:Cuba / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005240:Feasibility Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011634:Public Health / Q000379:methods*