title: Short-term projections of AIDS cases in Mexico.
abstract: We attempt to analyze and predict the behavior of the AIDS epidemic in Mexico. The reporting delay is corrected by using a cluster analysis, and the corrected data are used to make short-term projections by extrapolation, by fitting linear and log-linear models, and by back-calculation. The incubation period is assumed to have a Weibull distribution, and step functions are used for the infection functions. Most of the methods predict a mean of 25,000 accumulated cases by the end of 1993, and a comparison of the predictions with actual data up to November 1990 shows good agreement in all cases except the log-transformation linear model. The data for 1990 also show the reporting delay correction to be adequate in most cases.
authors.affiliation: IIMAS-UNAM, México, D.F.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ruiz Velasco
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Aranda Ordaz
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical