title: Decision analysis in oncology: panacea or chimera?
abstract: A review of the literature on the use of decision analysis in clinical oncology shows that, although these techniques have been available for more than 25 years, they have not been widely applied: only 19 decision analyses of therapeutic management in clinical oncology were found. The main disadvantages concern the difficulty of accurately assessing probabilities and defining measures of outcome. Time-consuming analysis may produce results that are either equivocal or simply confirm the expectations of common sense. If the basic design fails to include all relevant factors then any conclusions will be of little value. The main advantages are that, by demanding that problems be explicitly stated and analysed in a logical fashion, deficiencies in current knowledge, belief and practice are identified. The usefulness of these techniques lies in formulating management guidelines, either for treatment or for follow-up. They have only a limited role in decision making for individual patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiotherapy, St Bartholomew's Hospital, West Smithfield, London, UK.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Munro
mesh_terms: D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006801:Humans; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000628:therapy; D011379:Prognosis