title: Appendicular bone mineral and a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture.
abstract: Appendicular bone mass is inversely related to the risk of hip fracture in short-term prospective studies, but hip fractures typically occur about 30 years after menopause. We developed a model that estimates a woman's lifetime risk of hip fracture based on measurement of radial bone mass at age 50 using short-term prospective data relating bone mass to hip fracture, the correlation between bone mass at age 50 and later years, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture and mortality, and prospective data about bone mass and mortality. We estimate that a 50-year-old white woman has a 19% lifetime risk of hip fracture if her radial bone mass is at the 10th percentile for her age and an 11% lifetime risk if her bone mass is at the 90th percentile. Improved measurement techniques that have a higher predictive value for hip fracture in short-term studies could substantially increase this gradient of lifetime risk and therefore be more clinically useful.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco.
authors.forename: D M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Black
authors.forename: S R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Cummings
authors.forename: L J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Melton
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015519:Bone Density; D005260:Female; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D006801:Humans; D008593:Menopause; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors