title: Forecasting health: data needs and implications for model structure.
abstract: An agenda for analysing data on the health and functioning of the elderly must indicate new types of data to be collected, innovations in data collection strategies and new methods for analysis and forecasting. The required research agenda is broad and will require inputs from investigators in a number of disciplines. The data and methods required will need to be developed in order to reflect national, regional and local variations in the health phenomena under study; they will also have to be responsive to these variations. In the end, however, if the investment is to be most useful, it must be integrated into simulation and forecasting models, the mechanics of which are based on individual-level processes and not on the elements of the service system.
authors.affiliation: Center for Demographic Studies, North Carolina.
authors.forename: K G
authors.initials: KG
authors.lastname: Manton
mesh_terms: D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D009626:Terminology as Topic; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology