Prediction of the number of Down's syndrome infants to be born in England and Wales up to the year 2000 and their likely survival rates.
Using current demographic projection of maternal age-structure, age-specific fertility rates, and the availability, detection and utilization rates of prenatal diagnosis and subsequent termination rates, predictions are made of the likely numbers of births with Down's syndrome (DS) in England and Wales to be expected up to the year 2000. Further predictions are made of age-specific prevalence of the condition bearing in mind recent trends in survival. These figures show that, despite current screening policies based on maternal age alone, the observed live birth prevalence of DS will rise to levels higher than have been seen for 20 years. Together with consistently increased survival, this will mean that, throughout the next century, the population prevalence of DS will be higher than ever before. Work based in other countries has reached similar conclusions. As the prevention of all births affected by DS is not possible in the forseeable future, and some would argue that it is not desirable, society will need to provide for those affected.
Nicholson
A
A
Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Medical College of St Bartholomew's Hospital, London, England.
Alberman
E
E
D000029:Abortion, Legal / Q000639:trends; D000328:Adult; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004314:Down Syndrome / Q000401:mortality*; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008423:Maternal Age; D008875:Middle Aged; D011247:Pregnancy; D011296:Prenatal Diagnosis / Q000639:trends; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D014852:Wales / Q000453:epidemiology