title: A prospective study of the ability of three endoscopic classifications to predict hemorrhage from esophageal varices.
abstract: Hemorrhage from esophageal varices in cirrhotics is a frequent event with high mortality in spite of therapy. Preventive sclerotherapy seems to be beneficial only if the patient's bleeding risk is higher than 40 to 50% a year. A series of 320 patients with esophageal varices without previous bleeding was studied prospectively; the varices were classified according to three widely used endoscopic classifications. During follow-up (6 to 36 months, average 14 months), hemorrhage occurred in 49 patients (15.3%) of whom 30 (61.2%) bled from varices (8.2 and 11.0% at 12 and 24 months, respectively). At the same time intervals, mortality of the entire population studied was 18.0 and 23.8%, respectively, of which one third was directly due to hemorrhage. With all three classifications, the higher the degree of bleeding risk, the greater the actual percentage of hemorrhages recorded; however, it never reached 40% a year. In predicting the bleeding event, Dagradi's classification proved more sensitive than JRSPH or NIEC, but the latter classifications were more specific and assessed a higher predictive value for a positive test. Endoscopic observation probably needs integration with other methods if a reliable bleeding prediction is to be made.
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology and Digestive Endoscopy, University of Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: G P
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Rigo
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Merighi
authors.forename: N J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Chahin
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mastronardi
authors.forename: P L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Codeluppi
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ferrari
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Armocida
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Zanasi
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cristani
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Cioni
mesh_terms: D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000145:classification / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004945:Esophagoscopy; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006471:Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015993:Life Tables; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013997:Time Factors