Gonococcal infection, infertility, and population growth: I. Endemic states in behaviourally homogeneous growing populations.
Sexually transmitted diseases such as gonorrhoea are a significant cause of infertility in women when the infection is untreated. They have the potential to alter human population growth rates in many developing countries where sexually transmitted diseases are prevalent due to limited public health facilities for diagnosis and treatment. The authors develop a simple model describing the conditions under which such a disease can exist in a growing population in which sexual partners are chosen at random by proportionate mixing. Using the model, the impact that such a disease could have for a range of possible parameters is examined. Then a full parameter set for gonorrhoea in a developing country is estimated. Analysis demonstrates the significant influence gonococcal infection may have in reducing population growth rate in some communities. For example, the simple model predicts that a prevalence of 20% in sexually active adults results in a 50% reduction in the population growth rate. Finally, the authors discuss how potential control initiatives may change the parameter values that determine transmission and alter the demographic impact of gonorrhoea.
Swinton
J
J
Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, Imperial College, London, UK.
Garnett
G P
GP
Brunham
R C
RC
Anderson
R M
RM
D000349:Africa; D005260:Female; D006069:Gonorrhea / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007247:Infertility, Female / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological; D011158:Population Growth; D015995:Prevalence