Information selection and use in hypothesis testing: what is a good question, and what is a good answer?
The process of hypothesis testing entails both information selection (asking questions) and information use (drawing inferences from the answers to those questions). We demonstrate that although subjects may be sensitive to diagnosticity in choosing which questions to ask, they are insufficiently sensitive to the fact that different answers to the same question can have very different diagnosticities. This can lead subjects to overestimate or underestimate the information in the answers they receive. This phenomenon is demonstrated in two experiments using different kinds of inferences (category membership of individuals and composition of sampled populations). In combination with certain information-gathering tendencies, demonstrated in a third experiment, insensitivity to answer diagnosticity can contribute to a tendency toward preservation of the initial hypothesis. Results such as these illustrate the importance of viewing hypothesis-testing behavior as an interactive, multistage process that includes selecting questions, interpreting data, and drawing inferences.
Slowiaczek
L M
LM
Department of Psychology, University at Albany, State University of New York 12222.
Klayman
J
J
Sherman
S J
SJ
Skov
R B
RB
D000328:Adult; D001288:Attention; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003210:Concept Formation; D006801:Humans; D011939:Mental Recall; D011337:Probability Learning; D011340:Problem Solving