title: Evaluation of a model for prediction of lumbar bone mineral density.
abstract: A mathematical model with adequate clinical accuracy would be useful for predicting life-long bone mass behaviour in various skeletal sites. We have tested the performance of a multivariate nonlinear model, recently developed by an Italian research group for predicting lumbar bone mass and density, in a sample of 239 pre- or post-menopausal healthy Finnish women whose lumbar bone mineral density (BMD) was determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The model, which was based on height, weight, body mass index, age and years since menopause, predicted poorly (R-squared = 0.14) the measured BMD. Furthermore, it compressed strongly the actual variation of the BMD values resulting in a considerable overestimation or underestimation (about 30%) of low or high BMD values, respectively. Our results indicated that the predictive value of a simple model is not clinically acceptable and therefore the usefulness of this kind of model remains questionable.
authors.affiliation: UKK Institute for Health Promotion Research, Tampere, Finland.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sievänen
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kannus
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Oja
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Vuori
mesh_terms: D015502:Absorptiometry, Photon; D000328:Adult; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D015519:Bone Density; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland; D006801:Humans; D008159:Lumbar Vertebrae; D008593:Menopause; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological