title: The University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment study: further developments in caries risk prediction.
abstract: Over 4000 first and fifth grade children from the areas surrounding Aiken, South Carolina, and Portland, Maine, participated in a 4-yr study to develop caries risk assessment models. The predictors used at baseline included detailed clinical examinations, salivary microbiological tests, and sociodemographic and dental behavior data. Mean 3-yr caries increments in South Carolina were twice those in Maine. For the four risk assessment models (two grade cohorts at two sites) specificity values averaged 0.83 and sensitivity values averaged 0.60. Clinical predictors such as prior DMFS, pit and fissure morphology, and predicted caries risk status were the major contributors to the models.
authors.affiliation: Department of Dental Ecology, School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 27599-7450.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Disney
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Graves
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Stamm
authors.forename: H M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Bohannan
authors.forename: J R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Abernathy
authors.forename: D D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Zack
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D003733:Dental Caries Susceptibility; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007778:Lactobacillus / Q000302:isolation & purification; D016015:Logistic Models; D008281:Maine / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009657:North Carolina / Q000453:epidemiology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011336:Probability; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000302:isolation & purification