title: [Potential for spread of HIV in Japan].
abstract: Beginning 3 years ago, rapid spread of HIV was observed in Thailand with consequent serious problems in the public. HIV initially spread among i.v. drug abusers and then invaded prostitutes. Sero-surveillance estimates that there are 300,000 HIV positives in all of Thailand. Thai authorities warn that 4 million persons may be infected by the year 2000. In Japan, the cumulative number of HIV positives is reported as 453 excluding hemophiliac cases. However, the reported figures are assumed to be only a part of the actual figure. WHO estimates there may be 20,000 HIV positives in Japan. From the epidemiological surveillance, incidence of HIV positives even in the risk groups is extremely low in Japan. HIV positives in blood donors is merely 0.31 per 100,000. The question is whether AIDS will continue to be a less serious problem in Japan? Examination of blood or a voluntary basis may not tell the real situation of HIV positives in Japan. There is a real concern regarding HIV positives in female foreign visitors who made up 86 per cent of all female positives in Japan. These females are suspected to be professionals engaged in sex business in Japan. A hypothetical simulation indicates they may possibly infect 60,000 people per year. On the other hand, contact between Japanese travellers visiting Thailand and Thai prostitutes is also possible. Using the figure of 230,000 males visiting Thailand in 1990, hypothetical simulation revealed that 690 may become infected per year which is 1/50 of those calculated to be infected inside Japan.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oya
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology