The effect of preferential mixing on the growth of an epidemic.
The spread of infection in a community stratified into classes, where individuals have a preference for either within- or between-class contact, is discussed. The effect of such classification is assessed through the comparison of heterogeneous epidemic models with corresponding homogeneous models. Stratification of the community is modeled via a multitype branching process approximation to the epidemic. This allows us to conveniently study its effect through such quantities as the epidemic threshold parameter and the probability of a major outbreak. Attention is focused on the model of May and Anderson; however, a number of other heterogeneous structures reflecting preferential mixing are also studied.
Marschner
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Department of Statistics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, Victoria, Australia.
D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics