Comparison of prognostic indices for burns and assessment of their accuracy.
Logistic regression was used to create four individual models of prognostic indices based on our patient population. The simplest index using only three factors, age, extent of full skin thickness burn and inhalation injury, proved to be best. These models were also compared with established indices, like Baux's, Bull's and Roi's. For a specificity below 80 per cent, Baux's rule fits as well as Roi's index does. Changes in treatment modalities and improvement in therapy will influence the accuracy of an index. Indices must be adapted to changing conditions to avoid increasing false prediction of death.
Zöch
G
G
Burn Unit, University of Vienna Medical School, Austria.
Schemper
M
M
Kyral
E
E
Meissl
G
G
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D002056:Burns / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D002059:Burns, Inhalation / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012720:Severity of Illness Index