title: R0 bounds for worst-case endemic mixing models.
abstract: Upper and lower bounds are presented for the worst endemic prevalence possible in nonrandom mixing models. The bounds require only the value of the reproductive number R0 for the corresponding homogeneous epidemic model. For R0 values of 4 or larger, the difference between the upper and lower bounds on the worst-case prevalence is at most five percentage points.
authors.affiliation: Yale School of Organization and Management, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06520.
authors.forename: E H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Kaplan
mesh_terms: D004813:Epidemiology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011157:Population Dynamics