Receiver-operator characteristic, efficiency analysis, and predictive value of serum progesterone concentration as a test for abnormal gestations.
OBJECTIVE
Our objective was to determine if a discriminatory progesterone concentration could be established that confidently predicted abnormal early gestations.


METHODS
We analyzed differences in progesterone concentrations between normal (n = 40) and abnormal (n = 34) pregnancies during the first 49 days of gestation. The receiver-operator characteristic curve, test efficiency, and predictive value of serum progesterone to discriminate between an abnormal and normal first-trimester gestation were calculated for progesterone concentrations between 5 and 25 ng/ml.


RESULTS
Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis indicated that the best discriminatory progesterone concentration was 10 ng/ml. Test efficiency was maximum between serum progesterone concentration of 9 to 14 ng/ml (80%). When progesterone was less than 10 ng/ml, the predictive value of the abnormal test result was greater than 90%.


CONCLUSIONS
Receiver-operator characteristic analysis, test efficiency, and the predictive value of an abnormal test result suggest that the best progesterone cut off point that predicts abnormal early pregnancies is 10 ng/ml.
Cowan
B D
BD
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson 39216-4505.
Vandermolen
D T
DT
Long
C A
CA
Whitworth
N S
NS
D000022:Abortion, Spontaneous / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D009994:Osmolar Concentration; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011271:Pregnancy, Ectopic / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis*; D011374:Progesterone / Q000097:blood*; D012372:ROC Curve; D012016:Reference Values; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity
D011374:Progesterone