title: The health care system in the year 2000: three scenarios.
abstract: Because no one can predict the direction that national health policy might take over the next decade, the author outlines three of the more likely scenarios for the year 2000. He first describes seven major forces that have a stake in national health policy: the federal government, the state governments, business, organized labor, the public at large, the health industry, and the opinion-makers. he next indicates three ways these forces might come together (the scenarios), and last, gives a fuller description of the scenarios and the issues each would raise. He demonstrates in depth how the motivations of most of these forces are in conflict with one another and states that no national health policy is likely to emerge until there is a broad compromise that brings most of those conflicts to some sort of viable consensus. He urges those involved in health care to prepare for a range of possible policies such as, but not limited to, those outlined in this overview, and concludes by maintaining that no matter what health policy emerges, health professionals will use their common sense and good faith to make it work, as they always have.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Administration, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27710.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: McMahon
mesh_terms: D003132:Commerce / Q000639:trends; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D006076:Government; D006281:Health Occupations / Q000639:trends; D006291:Health Policy / Q000639:trends*; D006297:Health Services Accessibility / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007750:Labor Unions / Q000639:trends; D009310:National Health Insurance, United States / Q000639:trends; D011050:Policy Making; D011639:Public Opinion; D013219:State Government; D014481:United States