title: Estimations of the total size of the HIV and hepatitis B epidemics in South Africa.
abstract: The total number of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) in South Africa was estimated from a number of sources of seroprevalence for each of these viruses. A total figure of 122,951 HIV-infected individuals in South Africa was arrived at for January 1991; 69% (85,247) were from the urban black population and 20% (24,474) from the rural black population. The male homosexual population constituted some 7% (8,175) of the total, 94% of whom were white; however, this probably represented a substantial underestimation of the size of this population. A total of 1,475,223 carriers of HBV virus was calculated for South Africa from data obtained from 1986 to 1990. Of these, 88% (1,302,741) came from the rural black population and 8% (114,118) from the urban black population. Extrapolations from small sample numbers and often with broad assumptions are subject to considerable error. Nevertheless, estimated total figures do provide a vivid picture of the extent of these two epidemics.
authors.affiliation: MRC AIDS Virus Research Unit, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg.
authors.forename: B D
authors.initials: BD
authors.lastname: Schoub
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology; D001741:Black or African American; D044383:Black People; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012306:Risk; D012424:Rural Population; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population