The effect of airline deregulation on automobile fatalities.
This paper attempts to quantify the effects of airline deregulation in the United States on intercity automobile travel and consequently on the number of highway fatalities. A demand model is constructed for auto travel, which includes variables representing the price and availability of air service. A reduced form model of the airline market is then estimated. Finding that deregulation has decreased airfares and increased flights, it is estimated that auto travel has been reduced by 2.2% per year on average. Given assumptions on the characteristics of drivers switching modes and the types of roads they drove on, the number of automobile fatalities averted since 1978 is estimated to be in the range 200-300 per year.
Bylow
L F
LF
Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208.
Savage
I
I
D000060:Accidents, Aviation / Q000401:mortality / Q000639:trends; D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality* / Q000639:trends; D001359:Aviation / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards* / Q000639:trends; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D004467:Economics; D005161:Facility Regulation and Control / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population