Are traffic deaths in Ireland related to alcohol consumption? Restudying a time series model.
The traffic death rate and per capita alcohol consumption in Ireland were found by Walsh to be correlated. However, a more detailed analysis shows that changes in traffic deaths precede changes in alcohol consumption. Therefore, the correlation can not reflect a causal relation. When a speculative variable is included, the relation becomes concurrent. The overall conclusion is that there is no credible evidence for a relation between per capita alcohol consumption and traffic deaths.
Joksch
H C
HC
Mid-America Research Institute, West Hartford, CT 06107.
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality* / Q000639:trends; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015984:Causality; D006801:Humans; D007494:Ireland / Q000453:epidemiology; D016014:Linear Models; D013997:Time Factors