title: Computer analysis of the shape of spread of epidemics on a grid.
abstract: Models concerned with the spatial features of epidemic spread are often defined in terms of a nearest-neighbor grid network. It has been strongly conjectured, and can be proved in certain cases, that the infected area has an asymptotically well-defined shape. The present work concerns computer analysis of the shape of spread of a discrete-time single-parameter infection process on an eight-neighbor lattice. Results of extensive simulation are displayed using up-to-date exploratory data analysis software, and various attempts at fitting functions to the probability surfaces are considered.
authors.affiliation: Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lloyd
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007239:Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D008433:Mathematics; D008954:Models, Biological