title: Modelling the analysis of breast cancer screening programmes: sensitivity, lead time and predictive value in the Florence District Programme (1975-1986).
abstract: Statistical indicators of early efficacy were estimated in the Florence District Programme where breast cancer screening has been carried out since 1970. Analysis of screen-detected and interval cancer data by means of statistical modelling using GLIM allowed us to estimate the mean sojourn time (1.91 and 3.97 years in 40-49 and 50-69 year old women respectively), sensitivity (about 90% for those aged 50-69) and predictive value at the prevalence screening test (about 100%). Results were compared with estimates of the same parameters in the Health Insurance Plan and Swedish Two County studies.
authors.affiliation: Center for the Study and Prevention of Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Paci
authors.forename: S W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Duffy
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005260:Female; D006293:Health Promotion; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D016014:Linear Models; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity