Analysis of a risk-based model for the growth of AIDS infection.
Several models for the spread of AIDS within a homosexual community have been proposed that incorporate biased mixing of different risk groups. A simple model is presented that captures many of the features of these more complex models. Analytical expressions are derived for the time to the state of maximum infection (SMI) in a particular risk group, the proportion infected at SMI, and the number of infected individuals as the group approaches SMI. These results agree qualitatively with numerical simulations of the model.
De Young
G
G
Institute of Theoretical Dynamics, University of California, Davis 95616.
Maini
P K
PK
Nakamaye
M
M
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006716:Homosexuality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors