An epidemiological model for the dynamics of Chagas' disease.
A model for the transmission dynamics of Chagas' disease is presented. The structure of the model is similar to that of the Ross-Macdonald model for malaria but includes an extra infectious compartment (chronically ill individuals) which is characteristic of Chagas' disease. In Chagas' disease there are two-main forms of transmission, by blood transfusion and by vector biting. The former is more common in urban environments and the latter is characteristic of rural settings. The characteristic long chronic (frequently asymptomatic) stage of Chagas' disease is potentially a risk factor that could enhance disease transmission by blood transfusion. The model evaluates the relative importance of both transmission modes in populations of constant size. The main results indicate that there is a strong tendency of the disease to reach an asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium point. Also, the magnitude of the basic reproductive number is very sensitive to the length of the chronic stage of the disease and hence it follows that early detection of cases (reducing the length of this stage) is important for the eventual eradication of the disease.
Velasco-Hernández
J X
JX
Cornell University, Biometrics Unit, Ithaca NY 14853.
D000818:Animals; D014355:Chagas Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D006790:Host-Parasite Interactions; D006801:Humans; D014349:Trypanosoma cruzi / Q000502:physiology*