title: Independent risk factors for cumulative recurrence rate after first spontaneous pneumothorax.
abstract: From 1975 until 1987, 122 patients without (Group I, mean age 34 yrs) and 20 with pre-existing lung disease (Group II, mean age 66 yrs) were treated for their first spontaneous pneumothorax. Mean follow-up was 5.2 yrs (max. 12.8 yrs). There were 32 chest X-ray verified recurrences, 72% occurring during the first 2 yrs. One, 5 and 10 yr cumulative recurrence freedoms +/- standard error in groups I and II combined were 85 +/- 3%, 75 +/- 4% and 69 +/- 5%, respectively. Using Cox regression analysis in groups I and II combined, pulmonary fibrosis, age greater than or equal to 60 yrs, and height/weight ratio were independent predictors of recurrence. Combinations of these risk factors identified four risk strata with 10 yr recurrence freedoms ranging from 83-0%. Independent predictors in group I alone were pulmonary fibrosis, age greater than or equal to 60 yrs, height/weight ratio, and nonsmoking, resulting in four risk strata with 10 yr recurrence freedoms ranging from 98-31%. Recurrences after first-time treated spontaneous pneumothorax showed a distinct time-related pattern and should accordingly be analysed as a time-related event. In both the total patient-population and in the group without pre-existing lung disease, independent predictors of recurrence were identified, which allowed the patients to be substratified into groups with widely different recurrence rates.
authors.affiliation: Dept of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark.
authors.forename: H L
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Lippert
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Lund
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Blegvad
authors.forename: H V
authors.initials: HV
authors.lastname: Larsen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001827:Body Height; D001835:Body Weight; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011030:Pneumothorax / Q000209:etiology*; D011658:Pulmonary Fibrosis / Q000150:complications; D012008:Recurrence; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects