title: Follicular size at the time of human chorionic gonadotropin administration predicts ovulation outcome in human menopausal gonadotropin-stimulated cycles.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The objectives of this study were: (1) to correlate follicle size by transvaginal sonography with ovulation outcome in cycles of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation with human menopausal gonadotropins; (2) to determine if follicular size on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) administration predicts the incidence of ovulation; and, if so, (3) to derive a mathematical model that predicts the number of expected ovulations in any given cycle of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation.
  
  
  METHODS
  A retrospective analysis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Forty-nine consecutive patients undergoing 122 cycles of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation were studied in a tertiary care setting.
  
  
  METHODS
  Follicular size and evidence of ovulation were determined sonographically. The main outcome measure was the rate of ovulation per follicle size.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The percentages of follicles measuring less than or equal to 14 mm, 15 to 16 mm, 17 to 18 mm, 19 to 20 mm, and greater than 20 mm on the day of hCG administration that subsequently ovulated were 0.5%, 37.4%, 72.5%, 81.2%, and 95.5%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  (1) Follicular size on the day of hCG administration correlates with the incidence of ovulation. (2) The expected number of ovulations in any given controlled ovarian hyperstimulation cycle can be predicted with 95% confidence using the accompanying equation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Texas Health Science Center, San Antonio 78284-7836.
authors.forename: K M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Silverberg
authors.forename: D L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Olive
authors.forename: W N
authors.initials: WN
authors.lastname: Burns
authors.forename: J V
authors.initials: JV
authors.lastname: Johnson
authors.forename: T R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Groff
authors.forename: R S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Schenken
mesh_terms: D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D004958:Estradiol / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D005306:Fertilization; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008596:Menotropins / Q000008:administration & dosage*; D006080:Ovarian Follicle / Q000033:anatomy & histology* / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging / Q000502:physiology; D010062:Ovulation Induction / Q000379:methods*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D014463:Ultrasonography
chemical_list: D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin; D004958:Estradiol; D008596:Menotropins