The use of AIDS surveillance data for short-term prediction of AIDS cases in Madrid, Spain.
The paper presents a preliminary attempt to predict the numbers of AIDS cases in the Community of Madrid (CAM) up to 1992. Using AIDS case surveillance data gathered by CAM, and a statistical procedure that includes a distribution for reporting delays, the numbers of new diagnoses, reports, AIDS deaths and numbers of patients alive is predicted. Approximate confidence limits for the numbers of new diagnoses are given. We emphasise that these predictions are tentative given the nature of the reporting delays, and discuss the use of such predictions and the requirements for their improvement.
Department of Biology Imperial, College of Science, Technology and Medicine, London, UK.
G F
GF
Medley
V
V
Zunzunegui
R
R
Bueno
D
D
Lopez Gai
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology