Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: a simple epidemiological model.
Many HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) models have been developed to help our understanding of the dynamics and interrelationships of the determinants of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) spread and/or to develop reliable estimates of the eventual extent of such spread. These models range from very simple to very complex. WHO has developed a simple model for short-term projections of AIDS, details of which are presented here along with results obtained using the model to estimate and project AIDS cases for the USA, sub-Saharan Africa, and south/south-east Asia. WHO has also developed, based on the model described in this paper, a computer program (Epi Model), which will enable the user to easily change the values of any of the variables required by the WHO model.
Global Programme on AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
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Chin
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Lwanga
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission; D000328:Adult; D000353:Africa, Southern / Q000453:epidemiology; D001210:Asia, Southeastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014944:World Health Organization