Estimation and projection of adult AIDS cases: a simple epidemiological model.
Many HIV/AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) models have been developed to help our understanding of the dynamics and interrelationships of the determinants of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) spread and/or to develop reliable estimates of the eventual extent of such spread. These models range from very simple to very complex. WHO has developed a simple model for short-term projections of AIDS, details of which are presented here along with results obtained using the model to estimate and project AIDS cases for the USA, sub-Saharan Africa, and south/south-east Asia. WHO has also developed, based on the model described in this paper, a computer program (Epi Model), which will enable the user to easily change the values of any of the variables required by the WHO model.
Chin
J
J
Global Programme on AIDS, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
Lwanga
S K
SK
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission; D000328:Adult; D000353:Africa, Southern / Q000453:epidemiology; D001210:Asia, Southeastern / Q000453:epidemiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015233:Models, Statistical; D015995:Prevalence; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D014944:World Health Organization