title: [Prediction of the clinical course of AIDS in a cohort of 77 seropositive persons. Importance of p24 antigen in the blood and the level of serum IgA].
abstract: Among the HIV-1 seropositive subjects detected through blood donation in Paris area who every six months voluntarily went through a thorough clinical and biological follow-up in the Institut National de Transfusion Sanguine, a cohort of 77 subjects had completed at least four biannual controls by september 1988. Upon inclusion in the study, all subjects were CDC stage II or III, none had received any treatment. Biological parameters in entrance in the study were assessed in a attempt to forecast the CD4 lymphocyte count decrease during the 18 months follow-up time. Multivariate forward stepwise analysis indicated that only p24 ag level, IgA level, and partially neopterin or Beta-2-Microglobulin levels were independently predictive of CD4 count at the end of the follow-up and of the CD4 loss at the same time. The prediction by these biological parameters is a rather poor one, 39% of the variation of CD4 lymphocyte count or 30% of the variation of CD4 loss after 18 months of the cohort follow-up being explained. In conclusion, HIV-infection seems to possess an intrinsic evolution which escapes our surveillance by biological parameters.
authors.affiliation: Institut National de Transfusion Sanguine, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Salmon
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lambin
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Couroucé
authors.forename: J J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Lefrère
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Doinel
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Rouger
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Salmon
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; D000328:Adult; D015496:CD4-Positive T-Lymphocytes; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D015683:Gene Products, gag / Q000032:analysis*; D015488:HIV Antigens / Q000032:analysis*; D016655:HIV Core Protein p24; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000097:blood / Q000276:immunology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006801:Humans; D007070:Immunoglobulin A / Q000032:analysis*; D007958:Leukocyte Count; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D014758:Viral Core Proteins / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D015683:Gene Products, gag; D015488:HIV Antigens; D016655:HIV Core Protein p24; D007070:Immunoglobulin A; D014758:Viral Core Proteins
vernacular_title: Essai de prédiction de l'évolution vers le SIDA d'une cohorte de 77 séropositifs. Intérêt de l'antigènémie p24 et du taux des IgA sériques.