title: Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of ischemic heart disease mortality in the U.S., 1962-1986: a method of demonstrating the deterministic dynamics describing its decline.
abstract: Age-adjusted mortality rates for ischemic heart disease (IHD) in the United States from 1962 to 1986 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted IHD mortality rate distributions between age 40 and 85 years were determined by a variable environmental factor and an extrapolated common intersect point. The environmental factor declined (improved) 3.73-fold for men and 2.07-fold for women in 1986 as compared to 1962. However, the environmental factor in 1986 remained 15.34 fold more conductive to IHD mortality among men than women. The age at the extrapolated common intersect point was 126.7 years for men and 267.4 years for women. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of IHD mortality data suggests that IHD will remain a significant cause of mortality for men despite advances in risk factor reduction and medical therapy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Neurology, West Virginia University School of Medicine, Morgantown 26506.
authors.forename: J E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Riggs
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D013997:Time Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology