title: Projection of AIDS incidence in women in New York State.
abstract: The results of the Newborn HIV Seroprevalence Study in New York State for 1988 were used to estimate the number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women of childbearing age in 1988. The estimate was accomplished for each of 80 age, racial/ethnic, and geographic strata by dividing the number of seropositive newborns by the 1988 estimated fertility rate. Summing across strata yielded a total of 23,430 infected women age 15 to 44 years in 1988. From this estimate a tree model was used to estimate the number of women infected during 1981-88. Back calculation was used to distribute these infections over time, and the selected incubation distribution was used to estimate future AIDS cases for this population: 8,295 cases by 1993.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Lessner
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015982:Bias; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D009518:New York / Q000453:epidemiology