title: Is the AIDS epidemic ending?
abstract: In summary, current projections appear to underestimate the magnitude and course of the HIV epidemic because they are based on the end result of the infection rather than new infections. This concern is true at the local and the national level. Accurate planning requires that the level of and changes in the prevalence of HIV seropositivity in a random sample of the state and/or national population be determined at periodic intervals. Coupling these data to an assessment of the prevalence of affected individuals at various stages of HIV infection and the rate of progression from one stage to the next is critical to projections of the future magnitude and timing of expenditures for the various health care services.
authors.affiliation: University of Iowa College of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Iowa City.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Densen
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stapleton
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D015986:Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic; D005544:Forecasting; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006285:Health Planning / Q000592:standards; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012307:Risk Factors; D012725:Sexual Behavior; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology