Subjective probability and delay.
Human subjects indicated their preference between a hypothetical $1,000 reward available with various probabilities or delays and a certain reward of variable amount available immediately. The function relating the amount of the certain-immediate reward subjectively equivalent to the delayed $1,000 reward had the same general shape (hyperbolic) as the function found by Mazur (1987) to describe pigeons' delay discounting. The function relating the certain-immediate amount of money subjectively equivalent to the probabilistic $1,000 reward was also hyperbolic, provided that the stated probability was transformed to odds against winning. In a second experiment, when human subjects chose between a delayed $1,000 reward and a probabilistic $1,000 reward, delay was proportional to the same odds-against transformation of the probability to which it was subjectively equivalent.
Rachlin
H
H
Psychology Department, State University of New York, Stony Brook 11794.
Raineri
A
A
Cross
D
D
D000328:Adult; D006801:Humans; D011939:Mental Recall; D009042:Motivation; D011337:Probability Learning; D012055:Reinforcement Schedule; D012201:Reward