title: Predictive probability in clinical trials.
abstract: In a recent paper, Choi and Pepple (1989, Biometrics 45, 317-323) consider the use of predictive probabilities in the monitoring of clinical trials. In particular, they characterise the predictive probability as a "useful conservative measure" for monitoring purposes. In this note the nature and source of this "conservatism" are investigated.
authors.affiliation: Medical Statistics and Data Management, Ciba-Geigy Pharmaceuticals, Horsham, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Grieve
mesh_terms: D001699:Biometry; D002986:Clinical Trials as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability