title: Predictors of event-free survival after balloon aortic valvuloplasty.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Balloon aortic valvuloplasty was developed as an alternative to aortic-valve replacement in selected elderly patients with aortic stenosis. The use of this procedure is limited, however, by a high incidence of restenosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  Between December 1985 and April 1989, valvuloplasty was performed in 205 patients. We evaluated 40 demographic and hemodynamic variables as univariate predictors of event-free survival by Cox regression analysis and identified independent predictors of event-free survival by stepwise multivariate analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Early hemodynamic results indicated a decrease in the peak transaortic-valve pressure gradient from 67 +/- 28 to 33 +/- 15 mm Hg after valvuloplasty and an increase in aortic-valve area from 0.6 +/- 0.2 to 0.9 +/- 0.3 cm2 (P less than 0.001 for both comparisons). The rate of event-free survival (defined as survival without recurrent symptoms, repeated valvuloplasty, or aortic-valve replacement) was 18 percent over the mean (+/- SD) follow-up period of 24 +/- 12 months (range, 1 to 47). Significant predictors of event-free survival included the left ventricular ejection fraction and the left ventricular and aortic systolic pressure before valvuloplasty, and the percent reduction in the aortic-valve pressure gradient; the pulmonary-capillary wedge pressure was inversely associated with event-free survival. Although the predicted event-free survival rate for the entire patient group was 50 percent at one year (95 percent confidence interval, 43 to 57 percent) and 25 percent at two years (95 percent confidence interval, 19 to 31 percent), the probability of event-free survival at one year varied between 23 and 65 percent when patients were stratified according to three independent predictors: the aortic systolic pressure, the pulmonary-capillary wedge pressure, and the percent reduction in the peak aortic-valve gradient.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The most important predictors of event-free survival after balloon aortic valvuloplasty were related to base-line left ventricular performance. The best long-term results after valvuloplasty were observed among patients who would also have been expected to have excellent long-term results after aortic-valve replacement.
authors.affiliation: Charles A. Dana Research Institute, Boston.
authors.forename: R E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: Kuntz
authors.forename: A N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Tosteson
authors.forename: A D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Berman
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Goldman
authors.forename: P C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Gordon
authors.forename: B M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Leonard
authors.forename: R G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: McKay
authors.forename: D J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Diver
authors.forename: R D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Safian
mesh_terms: D001024:Aortic Valve Stenosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D002404:Catheterization / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D015996:Survival Rate