Age-period-cohort analysis of pancreatic cancer mortality in Taiwan, 1971-1986.
Interest has recently emerged about the increasing trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in Taiwan, particularly in the elderly. The mortality data of pancreatic cancer over the period 1971-1986 for males and females aged 40-84 in Taiwan were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model to examine the effects of age, calendar period of death, and birth cohort. This age-period-cohort model provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends. Age is the strongest factor in predicting pancreatic cancer mortality according to the models; the oldest age group 80-84 years old has 14.5 times the risk of the youngest age group 40-44. The cohort effect is also of particular interest because the generation at greatest risk for pancreatic cancer in both sexes, is the one born between 1917 and 1926, and a declining trend is observed thereafter for more recent cohorts. Parameters of the period factor show no observable trend before 1975, followed by a significantly increasing risk in the subsequent time period. However, the drop of pancreatic cancer mortality over all age groups between 1985-86 is puzzling and a further study to monitor the secular trends in the following years is warranted.
Lee
W C
WC
Institute of Public Health, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Republic of China.
Lin
R S
RS
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D012307:Risk Factors; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology