title: The aging of America. Impact on health care costs.
abstract: The rapid growth of the oldest age groups will have a major impact on future health care costs. We use current US Census Bureau projections for the growth of our oldest age groups to project future costs for Medicare, nursing homes, dementia, and hip fractures. Without major changes in the health of our older population, these health care costs will escalate enormously, in large part as a result of the projected growth of the "oldest old," those aged 85 years and above. Medicare costs for the oldest old may increase sixfold by the year 2040 (in constant 1987 dollars). It is unlikely that these projected increases in health care costs will be restrained solely by cost-containment strategies. Successful containment of these health care costs will be related to our ability to prevent and/or cure those age-dependent diseases and disorders that will produce the greatest needs for long-term care.
authors.affiliation: Ethel Percy Andrus Gerontology Center, University of Southern California, Los Angeles 90089-0191.
authors.forename: E L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Schneider
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Guralnik
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D035843:Biomedical Research; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003704:Dementia / Q000191:economics / Q000628:therapy; D035082:Federal Government; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006299:Health Services for the Aged / Q000191:economics*; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000191:economics / Q000628:therapy; D006699:Home Care Services; D006707:Homes for the Aged / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D007326:Institutionalization / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D006278:Medicare / Q000639:trends; D009735:Nursing Homes / Q000191:economics; D018579:Patient Selection; D011158:Population Growth; D040841:Resource Allocation; D012922:Social Change; D014481:United States