Ex-smokers and the multistage model for lung cancer.
Most versions of the multistage model predict that when persons stop smoking, their excess risk for lung cancer will continue to increase. Discussion of the model usually indicate that the excess risk stabilizes. The data show that the risk declines. Implications for models of carcinogenesis are discussed.
Freedman
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Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley 94720.
Navidi
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WC
D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D008390:Markov Chains; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000453:epidemiology; D000074606:Smoking Prevention