Probability of cardiac disease: Framingham revisited.
A study was undertaken to test the utility of a strict Bayesian formulation for the diagnosis of coronary disease. Using known probabilities of the disease for men and women in four different age groups and by estimating the probabilities of disease in patients with four important risk factors, we were able to estimate the probability of coronary disease in 512 different subsets of patients. We found that it was not possible to rigourously apply Bayes formula because neither the probability of the risk factor given the disease nor in patients without disease was obtainable in the medical literature. We conclude that to use Bayes formula without equivocation in coronary diagnosis does not appear possible in the present state of statistical knowledge. Rather, an expert system in the form of a knowledge-base would appear to be more achievable.
Director Nuclear Medicine, St. Michael's Medical Center, Newark, New Jersey.
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Sturman
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Perez
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005069:Evaluation Studies as Topic; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires