title: Incubation time of AIDS: progression of disease in a cohort of HIV-infected homo- and bisexual men with known dates of infection.
abstract: The time from infection with HIV to symptoms and AIDS is an important parameter in describing the natural course of HIV infection. We here describe disease progression in a group of 389 homo- and bisexual men. Of these 102 had known dates of infection, and during an average follow-up time of 31 months (range 2-108), 28 of these progressed from being symptom-free (CDC group II and III) to having some symptom from CDC group IV; 7 progressed to AIDS. By life-table analysis, the estimated average time from seroconversion to first symptom is approximately 5 years and to AIDS approximately 8 years. Very few patients are diagnosed with AIDS the first 2 years after infection, but after that the risk seems to be 5-10% per year. Increasing use of anti-HIV medication will render studies of this kind difficult in the future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Disease Control (MME), Karolinska Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Giesecke
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Scalia-Tomba
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Håkansson
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Karlsson
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lidman
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000145:classification / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000635:transmission; D001727:Bisexuality; D015331:Cohort Studies; D006679:HIV Seropositivity / Q000097:blood; D006716:Homosexuality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D013997:Time Factors