On the maximum size of the AIDS epidemic among the heterosexual black population in South Africa.
Using a macro-simulation model, the maximum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic among the heterosexual black population of South Africa is assessed. As a result of the simulations, it appears very unlikely that the demographic impact of AIDS is such that the size of the black population will be substantially reduced during the next three decades. A realistic 'worst-case' scenario is that population growth will come to a halt on a population level substantially higher than the present one. It is also unlikely that peak infection levels among the sexually active population will exceed 30-40%. However, especially in urban populations, it cannot be ruled out at present that infection levels of 30% will be reached within the next 10-15 years.
Schall
R
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Institute for Biostatistics, South African Medical Research Council, Parowvallei, CP.
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001741:Black or African American; D044383:Black People; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology