title: [The prospective course of the AIDS epidemic in The Netherlands according to Farr's Law].
abstract: In 1840 William Farr published his 'Laws of Epidemics' which he applied in 1866 to predict the cresting of an epidemic of rinderpest in England. Early in 1990 Bregman and Langmuir used these laws to predict the course of the AIDS epidemic in the U.S.A. They concluded that this epidemic had crested in 1988-1989. Applying the same method to the yearly number of AIDS patients in the Netherlands, the epidemic would peak around 1990-1991; thereafter the epidemic would decrease in volume to a low endemic level. This prediction should not yet be used as the basis of any public health action or policy. Only when it becomes clear from the figures of the U.S.A. that the AIDS epidemic follows Farr's laws, can the prediction become the basis of further policy. The sole aim of the calculations is to demonstrate that there is a distinct possibility that the new AIDS epidemic obeys the 150 year old laws of William Farr.
authors: Academisch Ziekenhuis, afd. Klinische Epidemiologie, Leiden.
authors: J P
authors: JP
authors: Vandenbroucke
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
vernacular_title: Het toekomstige verloop van de AIDS-epidemie in Nederland volgens de wet van Farr.