Hip fractures: a future epidemic?
Recent studies from the United Kingdom and Sweden have demonstrated a dramatic rise in the number of people with hip fractures. It is our hypothesis that New Zealand is experiencing a similar rise in the number of hip fractures. The number of elderly people (over age 65 years) admitted to public hospitals in New Zealand over a 38-year period was reviewed. In people over age 75 years, we observed a disproportionate increase in the number of fractures compared with the increase in population. The highest risk group was women over age 85 years. Because of the differing age-specific fracture rates, the proportion of females over age 85 increased from 17% in 1950 to 40% by 1987. Through weighted regression analysis of fracture rate and population predictions, the projected number of fractures in the year 2001 and 2011 was predicted. By 2011 the number of people sustaining hip fractures will more than double. The proportion of the very elderly (85+) will increase from 40 to 65%.
Rockwood
P R
PR
Department of Surgery, Wellington School of Medicine, New Zealand.
Horne
J G
JG
Cryer
C
C
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D016330:Frail Elderly; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009520:New Zealand / Q000453:epidemiology; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis