[The degree of coincidence of the long-term extrapolated expert prognosis with the real morbidity of tick-borne encephalitis in the USSR].
Tick-borne encephalitis morbidity over the period of 1952-1981 was assessed and the prognosis was made for 29 administrative territories for the 1980s and early 1990s. The changes in the morbidity in 1982-1988 have shown the coincidence with the prognosis in 70% of cases, in 20% of cases stability was noted instead of the predicted growth or drop in the morbidity, in 10% of cases real changes were contrary to the predicted ones. The peak of the disease onset was predicted correctly on 16 out of 22 territories, in 3 cases peak of the disease was observed 2 years earlier, in 1 case it was noted 4 and in 1 case 8 years earlier. Measures for improvement of the quality of the prognosis are suggested.
Naumov
R L
RL
Gutova
V P
VP
Fonareva
K S
KS
D004675:Encephalitis, Tick-Borne / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D010507:Periodicity; D015995:Prevalence; D011379:Prognosis; D013997:Time Factors; D014586:USSR / Q000453:epidemiology
Stepen' sovpadeniia dolgosrochnogo ékstrapoliatsionnogo ékspertnogo prognoza s real'noĭ zabolevaemost'iu kleshchevym éntsefalitom v SSSR.