title: Decision analysis in obstetrics and gynaecology.
abstract: Decision analysis has its weaknesses: it may oversimplify problems, and probability and utility estimates may be biased. However, the alternative--decision-making by intuition--is likely to oversimplify problems even more and to be subject to even greater bias. Clinicians and patients often ignore major items of data, they handle probabilistic information badly, and their decisions are subject to a number of well-documented biases (Tversky and Kahnemann, 1974). Concern over these problems is not a reason to avoid decision analysis. Probably the greatest virtue of the decision tree and the other components of decision analysis is that the method forces decision-makers to make the bases for their decisions explicit. Generating the information often clarifies problems, and the source of difference of opinion can then be elucidated. Most of the benefits of decision analysis come to the decision-maker in the early part of the analysis as the problem is formulated and probabilities and values are estimated. Only occasionally is it necessary to perform new research, formally measure experts' opinions by the Delphi method, or do elaborate sensitivity analysis.
authors.forename: J G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Thornton
mesh_terms: D015982:Bias; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D003663:Decision Trees; D006176:Gynecology; D009774:Obstetrics; D011336:Probability; D011788:Quality of Life