[Estimation of the long-term risks of death from smoking--application to public health education].
We calculated the long-term risks of death from smoking-related diseases for individuals of various smoking status using the health risk appraisal system based on Japanese epidemiologic and statistic data. For a 35-year-old man who had started to smoke at age 20 and smoked 20 cigarettes per day, the estimated probability of dying of lung cancer before reaching age 85 was 7.1 per cent, and 6.7, 7.3, 14.2 per cent for stomach cancer, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular disease respectively. If this same person had smoked 40 cigarettes per day, the corresponding probabilities were 9.4, 7.0, 14.3, 16.5 per cent respectively. If this same 35 year old man had never smoked, the probability of dying of lung cancer before age 85 was only 0.8 per cent and 5.0, 3.8, 12.5 per cent for the other smoking-related diseases. If this same person had started to smoke at age 20 and stopped smoking at the age of 35 or 55, the corresponding probabilities were nearly the same as those for a nonsmoker.
Nakamura
M
M
Dept. of Cancer Prevention, Osaka Cancer Prevention and Detection Center.
Oshima
A
A
Miura
M
M
D000328:Adult; D002423:Cause of Death; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D006305:Health Status Indicators; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011336:Probability; D011634:Public Health / Q000193:education*; D012306:Risk; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects*; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology