[Models for calculating risks as a tool in screening for cardiovascular diseases].
In connection with screening for risk factors for ischaemic heart disease in Bispebjerg Hospital, we have assessed three different models for calculation of the risk, employed on our own material. A total of 462 persons participated in the screening and 275 of these were under the age of 65 years. Out of these 275, 92 had plasma cholesterol values over or equal to 7.0 mmol/l and or smoked over 20 gram tobacco daily. On comparison between three models for calculation of the risk: one American, one British and one Swedish, moderate agreement was observed: the correlation coefficients varied between 0.75 and 0.89. The reason for this may be that the models for calculation of the risk are constructed on the basis of statistics already described from epidemiological investigations in which coincidence is demonstrated between selected observable factors and ischaemic heart disease. It is thus possible that the factors which we measure and possibly attempt to influence are not pathogenetic. We consider, therefore, that risk scoring should be employed with caution. As causal connection between ischaemic heart disease and cholesterol and smoking, respectively, have been demonstrated with reasonable certainty, we consider that it is reasonable to screen and intervene for these factors alone.
Bryndorf
T E
TE
Bispebjerg Hospital, København.
Petersen
H H
HH
Baastrup
A
A
Bremmelgaard
A
A
Videbaek
J
J
D000328:Adult; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D012307:Risk Factors
Risikoberegningsmodeller som redskab i screeningsundersøgelser for kardiovaskulaere sygdomme.