title: [Quantitative evaluation of screening programs for chronic diseases].
abstract: This paper addresses an epidemiologic approach to the quantitative evaluation of screening programs for chronic diseases. A new formula is advanced for the quantitative relationship between the yield of a screening program and the natural history of chronic disease, based on the two stage model of disease progression. The formula was applied to follow-up data of the participants and the proportions of cases detected by the screening were estimated as 15.3% for all diseases and 43.8% for hypertensive disorders. The formula is useful for continuous monitoring of ongoing screening programs as well as for potential impact evaluation of hypothetical programs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Epidemiology, University of Occupational and Environmental Health, Kitakyushu, Japan.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Yamaguchi
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Okubo
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Funatani
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008403:Mass Screening / Q000379:methods; D008432:Mathematical Computing; D008954:Models, Biological; D015397:Program Evaluation