title: Short-term predictions of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among the black population in South Africa.
abstract: After a brief methodological review of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome/human immunodeficiency virus (AIDS/HIV) forecasting methods, some of these methods were applied to the South African situation and short-term predictions of the prevalence of HIV infection among the black population in South Africa were obtained. At present, the prevalence of HIV infection increases exponentially, with a doubling time of 8,5 months (95% confidence interval 7,6-9,6 months). By the end of 1989 the number of HIV-infected black South Africans aged 15-49 years was estimated to be between 45,000 and 63,000, and it is predicted that these numbers will rise to between 119,000 and 168,000 by the end of 1990, and to between 317,000 and 446,000 by the end of 1991. Because of the lack of basic data, these forecasts are tentative, but they nevertheless indicate the great seriousness of the HIV epidemic in South Africa.
authors.affiliation: City Health Department, Johannesburg.
authors.forename: G N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Padayachee
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schall
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D001741:Black or African American; D044383:Black People; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013019:South Africa / Q000453:epidemiology