[Perforated gastroduodenal ulcer. II. Risk analysis in the prognostic evaluation of the postoperative course].
The data of 245 patients of our clinic, which perforation was treated with simple suture, were analysed by uni- and multivariate statistics to estimate risk factors. The aim was to predict the postoperative outcome. In a first step univariate test methods gave some orientation of the relevance of the factors. There was a highly significant correlation of age, preoperative shock, medical illnesses, time interval perforation-operation and clinical diagnosis to postoperative mortality. In a second step a multivariate decision model was used to calculate a prognostic index of the outcome after operation of perforated peptic ulcer. The index was tested in a cohort study. The results of validation were good for all quality parameters, so that the index allows a relatively safer statement about the so-called risk patients.--The prognostic problems of perforated gastroduodenal ulcer, including diagnosis, are also represented with graphic figures in the form of decision trees.
Krenzien
J
J
Klinik für Chirurgie, Bezirkskrankenhauses Potsdam.
Röding
H
H
Rudtke
B
B
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D003663:Decision Trees; D005260:Female; D005859:Germany, East / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010043:Outcome and Process Assessment, Health Care / Q000379:methods; D010439:Peptic Ulcer Perforation / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors
Das perforierte Gastroduodenalulkus. II. Risikoanalyse zur prognostischen Beurteilung des postoperativen Verlaufes.