title: The risk of falling in the elderly: a subjective approach.
abstract: Accidental injury resulting from falling is the leading cause of death in the elderly population. In fact, 11% of the nation's annual injury deaths occur in this age group. A significant number of accidental deaths occur in resident institutions. A short-term risk index was constructed and validated for the purpose of predicting the risk of a fall in an elderly institutionalized population. The risk index was developed from expert insights, using Bayesian inference. A group of experts identified major risk factors that influence the chance of a fall and provided estimates of the impacts of the identified risk factors. Identification of risk factors, elicitation of experts' insights, construction of the subjective risk index, and validation of the index are discussed.
authors.affiliation: Tulane University Medical Center, School of Public Health, New Orleans, Louisiana 70112.
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Fos
authors.forename: C L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: McLin
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000059:Accidents / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D012306:Risk; D012307:Risk Factors