[Multivariate prediction of the first major coronary event. The Italian experience in a 25 years follow-up].
Two rural samples, totaling 1712 men aged 40-59 at entry, have been followed-up for 25 years for incidence of the first major coronary event and for the study of its prediction, using 28 risk factors or characteristics, as measured at entry. The probability of developing a first major coronary event in 25 years was 22.13% on the basis of the life tables technique. Out of all the recorded events, 24.6% were fatal within 2 hours from the onset of symptoms and 35.9% within the first month. The multivariate analysis carried out by the proportional hazards model allowed to identify a set of factors with highly significant coefficients for the prediction of the event. These factors are age, mean blood pressure, serum cholesterol, the presence of arcus senilis. Marital status (protective), physical activity (protective), forced expiratory volume (protective), family history of myocardial infarction and cigarette consumption were predictive to a lesser extent. Nineteen remaining factors explored in this analysis had no predictive value.
Menotti
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A
Laboratorio di Epidemiologia e Biostatistica, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Roma.
Giampaoli
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S
Seccareccia
F
F
Spagnolo
A
A
D000328:Adult; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012423:Rural Health; D013997:Time Factors
La predizione multivariata del primo evento coronarico maggiore. Un'esperienza italiana su 25 anni di follow-up.