Mortality and air pollution in London: a time series analysis.
The relation between air pollution and mortality in London was examined for the winters of 1958-1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year. Graphic analysis revealed a nonlinear relation with no threshold, and a steeper exposure-response curve at lower air pollution levels. In models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient. The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal.
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460.
J
J
Schwartz
A
A
Marcus
D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012906:Smoke / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D013696:Temperature
D012906:Smoke; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide