Mortality and air pollution in London: a time series analysis.
The relation between air pollution and mortality in London was examined for the winters of 1958-1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year. Graphic analysis revealed a nonlinear relation with no threshold, and a steeper exposure-response curve at lower air pollution levels. In models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient. The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal.
Schwartz
J
J
Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460.
Marcus
A
A
D000397:Air Pollution / Q000032:analysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012906:Smoke / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D013696:Temperature
D012906:Smoke; D013458:Sulfur Dioxide