title: [Possibilities and limitations of the predictive risk estimates and epidemiological studies following the Chernobyl incident].
abstract: The disastrous accident at the nuclear power station at the Chernobyl on 1986 (April 26) has brought attention to the estimation of radiation health effects and many "experts" were attending to the evaluation on oncogenic mortality increase among the Italian population in the next future. On the contrary at that time too few peoples were worried about the possibility of detecting such an increase. Discussion of this topic is notoriously fraught with difficulties arising from differences of opinion how to estimate low-dose risk in humans without data from direct observation. One opinion is to extrapolate from the data points obtained at relatively high doses toward zero dose (zero extrapolation theory). This permit estimates of risk to be made but, in the final analysis, no data from humans exist that show that low-level radiation exposures produce measurable biologic effects. For that this theory is more useful in radio-protection and medico-legal subjects. It is easy on a statistical basis to prove the impossibility to establish an increase in human cancer after low doses of ionizing radiation such as those received environmentally after the Chernobyl's accident. In this condition to observe the numbers of radiation-induced cancer deaths that far exceed the "natural" incidence would require a follow-up a sample more and more greater than the italian population herself. Indeed the statistical power of a hypothetical follow-up study at a suitable confidence level would require a sample size higher than a milliard of persons for the detection of an increase of a generic cancer mortality and higher then seven hundred of millions for the detection of an increase of the specific thyroid cancer mortality. In more detail the following figures for the parameters needed to curring out the evaluation have been used: medium dose equivalent to the thyroid, 2.03 mSv; medium effective dose equivalent up to december '87, 0.6 mSv; thyroid cancer mortality in the italian population, 0.94 10(-5) y-1; total cancer mortality in the italian population, 22.2 10(-2) y-1; risk factor per unit dose equivalent in thyroid, 0.5 10(-6) mSv-1; risk factor per unit effective dose equivalent, 2.0 10(-5) mSv-1. Applying the foregoing values in statistical inference methods it could be achieved that 7.5 18(8) and 1.25 10(9) persons must be followed-up in the next 30 years to detect a significant increase over the "natural" cancer mortality for thyroid and "total body" radioinduced cancers respectively.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
authors: G
authors: G
authors: Trenta
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Muzzi
mesh_terms: D000059:Accidents; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D009688:Nuclear Reactors; D011832:Radiation Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology; D012306:Risk; D014455:Ukraine / Q000453:epidemiology
vernacular_title: Possibilità e limiti di stime predittive di rischio e indagini epidemiologiche a seguito dell'incidente di Chernobyl.