A reappraisal of the epidemiology of phenotypes of Neisseria gonorrhoeae.
We analyzed published data from studies of the epidemiology of gonococcal auxotype/serovar phenotypes in Seattle and King County, Washington; Denver, Colorado; and Miami and Dade County, Florida, to determine whether the numbers of new phenotypes were within the ranges of numbers predicted from previous observations in the same populations. For this analysis, we used the model of Fisher and Good and Turing. In all the analyses, the observed number of new species was within the 95% confidence region for the expected number. In contrast to the original interpretation of the data--that phenotypes of Neisseria gonorrhoeae pass through the human population in waves, our analysis is compatible with random sampling of a larger population of gonococcal phenotypes. This suggests that transmission of gonorrhea is sustained as much by failure to cure core-group transmitters as by failure to prevent introductions from other populations.
Bell
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Department of Pediatrics, University of Washington, Seattle 98195.
Breslow
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D003120:Colorado; D005431:Florida; D006069:Gonorrhea / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000235:genetics / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D009344:Neisseria gonorrhoeae / Q000235:genetics; D010641:Phenotype; D014861:Washington