title: Bayesian forecasting of serum lithium concentrations. Comparison with traditional methods.
abstract: Twelve pharmacokinetic methods of estimating lithium maintenance dosage requirements were compared in 21 patients with bipolar illness. Methods which were compared included the single- and multiple-point methods of Perry, 4 non-linear regression and 6 Bayesian methods. The REVOL algorithm was employed for converging on to estimates of clearance and apparent volume of distribution for the non-linear regression and Bayesian methods. Data analysis was based on an evaluation of prediction error as a measure of bias, and absolute prediction error as a measure of precision. In a direct comparison, there were no statistically significant differences in bias or precision between any of the methods.
authors.affiliation: University of the Pacific School of Pharmacy, Stockton, California.
authors.forename: P J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Browne
authors.forename: R A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Patel
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008094:Lithium / Q000097:blood* / Q000493:pharmacokinetics; D016651:Lithium Carbonate; D008297:Male; D008722:Methods; D008875:Middle Aged; D011336:Probability; D012044:Regression Analysis
chemical_list: D016651:Lithium Carbonate; D008094:Lithium