[Possibility of modeling regional characteristics of the level and structure of morbidity and the utilization of medical services by the population].
The feasibility of modelling the annual level and the pattern of gerenal morbidity (applications for aid) of the population according to the data on a single application for aid during one month of the year was based on the established regularities of seasonal changes in patients' applications for aid. It was established that an average day level of applications for aid each month in relation to average annual levels was a constant value governed by the peculiarities of seasonal distribution and irrespective of the value of the intensive morbidity indicator in the region. Distribution of applications for medical aid by week days also appeared to be constant. Proceeding from the data on population's applications for aid during 2-4 days the proposed system of coefficients enabled one to obtain the necessary information on the regional character of population's morbidity and various health care needs, thus it became possible to assess adequacy of the level of medical services to the population's health care needs in this region and also to supply information on various analytical, managerial, and planned standard problems. Experimental examination of feasibility and reliability of the model development of the level and pattern of general morbidity on the basis of a single registration of regional consultation rates was tackled by means of computer-based registration of the morbidity of 25,000 residents of Kineshma, the Ivanov Region.
Baziian
G V
GV
Novgorodtsev
G A
GA
Dubrovina
V D
VD
Zvolinskaia
R M
RM
Leonov
S A
SA
D006296:Health Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009017:Morbidity; D012426:Russia; D012621:Seasons
Vozmozhnost' modelirovaniia territorial'nykh osobennosteĭ urovnia i struktury zabolevaemosti i nuzhdaemosti naseleniia v meditsinskoĭ pomoshchi.