Estimating the size of the HIV epidemic by using mortality data.
Evidence that more people are dying as a result of HIV infection than is reflected by the number of deaths among reported cases meeting the WHO definition of AIDS is derived from mortality data. Ninety-five causes of death likely to be associated with HIV infection were selected. Standardized mortality ratios due to these causes increased for single men aged 15-54 years from 100 in 1984 to 118 in 1987. The age, sex, marital status, temporal and geographic distribution of these excess deaths suggest that they are HIV-associated. It is estimated that 58% of excess deaths due to HIV-related causes were among cases reported to the CDSC AIDS Surveillance Programme in 1987. Some of these deaths may have been among HIV-positive people who did not meet the WHO definition at the time of death. There is a need for surveillance to be extended to include HIV-positive people who die before meeting the WHO definition if the full extent of the HIV epidemic is to be identified.
McCormick
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PHLS Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, London, U.K.
D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D012737:Sex Factors; D012847:Single Person