Ten-year follow-up study of islet-cell antibodies and childhood diabetes mellitus.
To find out whether subclinical autoimmunity precedes onset of nonfamilial insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM), 4806 schoolchildren aged 5-19 years from a township in Holland were followed-up for at least ten years after blood was sampled for measurement of islet-cell antibodies (ICA). ICA positivity conferred a relative risk of IDDM of 533 (95% CI 145-1955). In the 10 years of follow-up 4 of the 8 ICA-positive subjects became insulin dependent, whereas the probability of being free of IDDM was 99.9% for those who were ICA-negative at the start of the study. The findings suggest that, although chronic autoimmunity involving the pancreatic beta-cells may precede non-familial IDDM by many years, a positive ICA test on a single occasion predicts the development of IDDM in only 4 out of 8 subjects over a period of 10 years.
Bruining
G J
GJ
Department of Pediatrics, Sophia Children's Hospital, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Molenaar
J L
JL
Grobbee
D E
DE
Hofman
A
A
Scheffer
G J
GJ
Bruining
H A
HA
de Bruyn
A M
AM
Valkenburg
H A
HA
D000293:Adolescent; D000911:Antibodies, Monoclonal; D001323:Autoantibodies / Q000032:analysis*; D002648:Child; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007515:Islets of Langerhans / Q000276:immunology*; D008297:Male; D009426:Netherlands; D012307:Risk Factors
D000911:Antibodies, Monoclonal; D001323:Autoantibodies; C024211:islet cell antibody