title: A process of events with notification delay and the forecasting of AIDS.
abstract: Analysis and prediction of a point process are studied when there is delay in notifying the occurrence of events. A primarily parametric approach is taken to studying the rate of the underlying process and to predicting future properties of the system. Data on AIDS are used in illustration.
authors.affiliation: Nuffield College, Oxford, U.K.
authors.forename: D R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Cox
authors.forename: G F
authors.initials: GF
authors.lastname: Medley
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013997:Time Factors