title: Prediction for small subgroups.
abstract: Prediction limits are calculated for the number of events likely to occur in a specified time period in an exponentially growing epidemic. The basis for the prediction is the total number of events observed in the past.
authors.affiliation: Nuffield College, Oxford, U.K.
authors.forename: D R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Cox
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Davison
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability