title: Estimation of the risk of death during the first year after acute myocardial infarction from systolic time intervals during the first week.
abstract: Patients who survived for the first seven days after acute myocardial infarction were followed up for a further 51 weeks. During these 51 weeks there were 123 deaths and 477 eventual survivors. Approximately half of the deaths occurred during the first 3 weeks of follow up. The deaths were predicted with 75% sensitivity and 73% specificity by a discriminant analysis based upon six variables seen during the first 7 days; predictions of death and survival were 55% and 92% accurate respectively. These six variables were, in ascending order of prognostic importance, the occurrence of bundle branch blocks, the administration of a diuretic, the age of the patient, the presence of diabetes mellitus, a previous myocardial infarction, and the ratio of the measured left ventricular pre-ejection and ejection periods. Many other monitored variables, although univariately associated with death, contributed nothing further to the multivariate assessment of mortality risk.
authors.affiliation: Leicester Royal Infirmary, Coronary Care Unit.
authors.forename: B J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Northover
mesh_terms: D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D009200:Myocardial Contraction; D009203:Myocardial Infarction / Q000401:mortality* / Q000503:physiopathology; D010351:Patient Discharge; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D013599:Systole