A retrospective and prospective study of the number of kidney transplants in 31 countries.
The aim of the present study was to try to predict the number of cadaveric kidney transplantations (CKT) that will be performed in the year 1993. The raw data regarding the number of renal transplants that have been performed annually since 1975 in 31 countries, which were divided into six groups, were collected from published reports and confirmed by a questionnaire sent to all centers. The annual number of grafts was estimated using an exponential model, highly correlated with retrospective data (r2 greater than 0.99). Predictions for 1993 were extrapolated. The growth of transplantation activity is limited by a shortage of available donor organs. The maximum number of grafts was arbitrarily set at 40 per million population, which is the maximum rate currently observed. The total number of CKT carried out between 1975 and 1986 was 114,000; this will probably exceed 280,000 in 1993. The yearly activity in 1987 exceeded 16,500 and is expected to reach approximatively 26,000 grafts in 1993.
Chevalier
C
C
INSERM U13 Hôpital Claude Bernard, Paris, France.
Dupuy
J M
JM
Busson
M
M
Hors
J
J
Foulon
G
G
D000352:Africa, Northern; D001315:Australia; D005060:Europe; D006801:Humans; D016030:Kidney Transplantation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009656:North America; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012189:Retrospective Studies