A regression approach to the projection of U.S. fertility based on past fertility data.
The method of fertility projection used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census involves assumptions about the ultimate cohort total fertility rate and the ultimate cohort mean age at childbearing based on recent levels of fertility and women's birth expectations. This paper provides an outline of a general regression approach to fertility projection based on past data which would generate these two ultimate cohort characteristics. The technique is illustrated by using the U.S. single-year age-specific fertility rates up to 1986 for total women and projecting them indefinitely into the future until they become stable for both calendar years and cohorts.
Das Gupta
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D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009035:Mothers / Q000523:psychology; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012718:Set, Psychology; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States