title: [The role of migration in assessing age-specific event probabilities exemplified by the probability of death].
abstract: Estimating probabilities of age-specific events both in demography and in epidemiology (force of mortality, force of morbidity) will contain additional errors if the frequency of the respective events is influenced by net migration and if migration is not taken into consideration when estimating these events. The terms used in including migration into estimating the respective rates are refined terms. The influence of migration on age-specific events is demonstrated by age-specific mortality and the life expectancy computed on the basis of age-specific mortality rates for the GDR in 1984. The results demonstrate that the life expectancy of the population of Berlin will be underestimated by 0.28 years if migration processes are not taken into consideration.
authors.forename: R D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Scholz
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schott
mesh_terms: D001604:Berlin; D015982:Bias; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D009026:Mortality; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability
vernacular_title: Zur Berücksichtigung der Wanderung bei der Abschätzung altersspezifischer Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeiten am Beispiel der Sterbenswahrscheinlichkeiten.