[Prediction of operative mortality by a discriminant analysis for organ functions in patients with esophageal cancer--organ function index].
An "organ function index" (OFI) predicting the risk of operative mortality was presented. OFI was estimated on the basis of dysfunction of the systemic organs in patients with esophageal cancer. The pulmonary, cardiac, hepatic and renal functions were assessed by 23 parameters in 108 patients when they were admitted. Operative death was defined as death due to operative complications occurring within 120 days after esophagectomy or by-pass operation. For a discriminant analysis, patients were limited to those in the early period (from October 1981 until December 1985) when the incidence of operative mortality was relatively higher and the parameters were also limited to statistically evaluable ones. Then, a discriminant analysis was performed using data on 18 parameters of four organs in 35 patients each of whom had no deficit in these data. Operative death occurred in 8 out of these 35 patients. Based on the data, an equation to calculate OFI was generated. It consisted of 7 parameters regarding pulmonary, hepatic and renal functions. The values of OFI less than zero predicted no operative death while those more than zero did predict operative death. The prediction rate on presence or absence of operative mortality by this equation was 91.4% in 35 patients. For clinical application, the predictable risk of operative mortality based on OFI was classified as high (OFI less than 1.4), intermediate (0 less than OFI less than 1.4), or low (OFI less than 0).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Saito
T
T
Zeze
K
K
Kuwahara
A
A
Miyahara
M
M
Shimoda
K
K
Hirao
E
E
Keketani
K
K
Shigemitsu
Y
Y
Kobayashi
M
M
D016002:Discriminant Analysis; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000601:surgery*; D006321:Heart / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006801:Humans; D007668:Kidney / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008099:Liver / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008168:Lung / Q000503:physiopathology*; D008197:Lymph Node Excision; D011183:Postoperative Complications / Q000401:mortality; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate