title: [Computer model for prognosis of incidence of aseptic meningitis].
abstract: A possibility of construction of a mathematical model for current prognosing of aseptic meningitis incidence both for 2-4 months in advance and for the whole year has been demonstrated. The initial information consisted of the data on prevalence of enteroviruses in water objects as from May. Comparison of the actual and estimated incidence indicates that with the proposed model, up to 90.4% of the incidence of aseptic meningitis may be explained.
authors.forename: K I
authors.initials: KI
authors.lastname: Spynu
authors.forename: I A
authors.initials: IA
authors.lastname: Preĭgel'
authors.forename: V P
authors.initials: VP
authors.lastname: Vutkarev
authors.forename: T P
authors.initials: TP
authors.lastname: Grushko
authors.forename: I T
authors.initials: IT
authors.lastname: Il'chuk
authors.forename: S S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Kostritsa
authors.forename: P I
authors.initials: PI
authors.lastname: Iarovoĭ
authors.forename: M P
authors.initials: MP
authors.lastname: Vangeli
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004769:Enterovirus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008581:Meningitis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008582:Meningitis, Aseptic / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D008587:Meningitis, Viral / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013997:Time Factors; D014871:Water Microbiology
vernacular_title: Komp'iuternaia model' prognozirovaniia zabolevaemosti seroznym meningitom.