Risk modelling: which models to choose?
Using as examples excess lung cancer mortality in coke oven workers and lung tumor induction in rats by inhalation of diesel engine emissions or cadmium chloride aerosol, the maximum likelihood estimate and the upper limit of risk were determined using a set of conventional risk models. The additional safety offered by going to the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval when deriving a unit risk value was found to be less than a factor of 5 in all but one case, and usually much less than 2. It is concluded that the selection of an adequate model is the most critical step in risk assessment, and that an additional safety factor may be required to allow for a better protection of the public in case models other than the most conservative ones come into use.
Csicsaky
M J
MJ
Medical Institute of Environmental Hygiene, University of Düsseldorf, FRG.
Roller
M
M
Pott
F
F
D000818:Animals; D001580:Benzopyrenes / Q000009:adverse effects; D002104:Cadmium / Q000009:adverse effects; D019256:Cadmium Chloride; D005742:Gasoline / Q000009:adverse effects; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D051381:Rats; D012307:Risk Factors
D001580:Benzopyrenes; D005742:Gasoline; D002104:Cadmium; D019256:Cadmium Chloride