Clinical versus actuarial judgment.
Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.
Dawes
R M
RM
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
Faust
D
D
Meehl
P E
PE
D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D001525:Behavioral Sciences / Q000379:methods*; D003937:Diagnosis, Differential; D006801:Humans; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy