title: The quantitative evaluation of risks: unresolved problems.
abstract: Various generators of risk which are believed to be important, namely unhealthy diet, hazardous occupations, smoking, poverty, radiation and chance of war are considered. The considerations which are relevant for policy in risk evaluation are taken to be the magnitude of the risk, the strength of the evidence that the risk is real, the size of the population at risk and the ease of modification of a behaviour involving risk. Various measures for judging risk are outlined, including mortality rates, relative mortality rates, morbidity measures, and more extensively the analysis of "costs and benefits". The importance of longitudinal studies is stressed. A theoretical framework is presented to describe formally how risk can be quantified. This is followed by a discussion of risks associated with specific hazardous activities. It is suggested that among those considered, poverty and nuclear war represent the greatest risks, followed by smoking and, in decreasing order of priority, industrial risks and poor diet.
authors.forename: W F
authors.initials: WF
authors.lastname: Forbes
authors.forename: M E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Thompson
mesh_terms: D000395:Air Pollutants, Occupational / Q000009:adverse effects; D002170:Canada; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D006801:Humans; D011832:Radiation Injuries / Q000517:prevention & control; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects
chemical_list: D000395:Air Pollutants, Occupational