Eyewitness accuracy and confidence: within- versus between-subjects correlations.
Previous researchers using between-subjects comparisons have found eyewitness confidence and accuracy to be only negligibly correlated. In this study, we examined the predictive power of confidence in within-subject terms. Ninety-six subjects answered, and made confidence ratings for, a series of questions about a crime they witnessed. The average between-subjects and within-subject accuracy-confidence correlations were comparably low: r = .14 (p less than .001) and r = .17 (p less than .001), respectively. Confidence is neither a useful predictor of the accuracy of a particular witness nor of the accuracy of particular statements made by the same witness. Another possible predictor of accuracy, response latency, correlated only negligibly with accuracy (r = -.09 within subjects), but more strongly with confidence (r = -.27 within subjects). This pattern was obtained for both between-subjects and within-subject comparisons. The theoretical and practical implications of these results are discussed.
Smith
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VL
Kassin
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SM
Ellsworth
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PC
D000328:Adult; D001288:Attention; D003416:Criminal Law; D006801:Humans; D007603:Jurisprudence; D008568:Memory; D011939:Mental Recall; D014796:Visual Perception