title: A time series analysis of gonorrhea surveillance data.
abstract: Gonorrhea is the most frequently reported communicable disease in the United States. In response to rapidly rising rates in the late 1960s, the Public Health Service instituted a gonorrhea control programme. An important component of the programme is the screening of women for gonococcal infections. We use a time series intervention model to estimate the initial increase in reporting of cases in women associated with the control programme. From the middle 1970s to the middle 1980s, a regular seasonal pattern in the data is conspicuous. We use a second time series model to quantify the seasonal variation during this period and to construct forecasts.
authors.affiliation: Division of Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Schnell
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zaidi
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Reynolds
mesh_terms: D003627:Data Interpretation, Statistical; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006069:Gonorrhea / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D008403:Mass Screening; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D012008:Recurrence; D012621:Seasons; D014481:United States