title: Evaluation of a two-compartment Bayesian forecasting program for predicting vancomycin concentrations.
abstract: The application of a two-compartment Bayesian forecasting program for vancomycin was tested retrospectively in 45 adult patients with stable renal function. Serial blood samples from 25 of these patients were used to determine population-based parameter estimates. The predictive performance of the Bayesian program was assessed by using both non-steady-state and steady-state vancomycin concentrations as feedback information. Overall, the program tended to underpredict peak and trough steady-state vancomycin serum concentrations. A larger mean prediction error (ME) was seen when non-steady-state feedback serum concentrations were used compared with using population-based parameter estimates (no feedback). In contrast, a marked improvement in ME (peaks: -1.03 versus -2.61; troughs: -1.60 versus -2.07) was seen when steady-state feedback serum concentrations were used compared with no feedback data. Precision improved when either feedback serum concentrations were used to predict steady-state peak and trough vancomycin concentrations. The results from this clinical evaluation demonstrate that the initial pharmacokinetic parameter estimates for a two-compartment Bayesian model provided accurate prediction of steady-state vancomycin concentrations. Prediction bias and precision were improved when steady-state vancomycin concentrations were used to determine individualized pharmacokinetic parameters.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pharmacy Practice, College of Pharmacy, University of Illinois, Chicago 60612.
authors.forename: K A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Rodvold
authors.forename: R D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Pryka
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Garrison
authors.forename: J C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Rotschafer
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D011336:Probability; D014640:Vancomycin / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000097:blood* / Q000493:pharmacokinetics
chemical_list: D014640:Vancomycin