Characterizing physicians' perceptions of ambiguity.
Ambiguity, typically characterized as imprecision in judged probabilities is distinguishable from that uncertainty typically measured using probabilities. It reflects the inadequacy of a point probability judgement and the assumptions upon which it is based. Ambiguity influences both patients' and physicians' decisions, but it is unknown how decision makers conceptualize ambiguity. Toward this goal, properties of three ambiguity indicators were examined: a confidence rating, a plausible range, and an interquartile range. Board-certified internists and fourth-year medical students evaluated simulated cases of suspected coronary artery disease. Their judgements provided insights into the three ambiguity indicators. The distribution-based interquartile range was largely redundant with the plausible range, and was least adequate. The confidence rating was not equivalent to the plausible range, and appeared to best reflect the construct of ambiguity as it has been defined.
Curley
S P
SP
Department of Management Sciences, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis 55455.
Young
M J
MJ
Yates
J F
JF
D003198:Computer Simulation; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000175:diagnosis; D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008824:Michigan; D010465:Perception; D010820:Physicians / Q000523:psychology*; D011336:Probability