Probability of pathology.
The literature on population screening tests provides us with a well-developed statistical framework for identifying groups at risk of specific disease, taking account of the limitations of the test as a disease marker, the prevalence of the disease in the population being screened, and the relative costs of misclassification. This predictive value model has a relatively simple interpretation in the context of binary test variables (Test+/Test-). Its interpretation in the context of continuous test variables is less straightforward because we now have to draw a distinction between group risk associated with the test cut-off value, and the individual risk for a specific subject associated with his/her particular test value. Failure to appreciate this distinction can lead to a gross misinterpretation of the risk of disease for the individual test subject.
Institute of Pathology and Tropical Medicine, Royal Air Force Halton, Aylesbury, Bucks, U.K.
P W
PW
Strike
D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010338:Pathology, Clinical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012306:Risk