Future imperfect: the limitations of clinical prediction models and the limits of clinical prediction.
Stepwise regression procedures are often used to identify a small set of variables that serve as important predictors of clinical outcome and to construct prediction models based on those variables. Several theoretical and practical limitations of this process are discussed and highlighted with a variety of examples from published reports. Wider appreciation of these limitations should encourage the development of more relevant models, and thereby improve the quality of clinical prediction.
Division of Cardiology, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, University of California, Los Angeles 90048.
G A
GA
Diamond
D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis