[Cyclicity and the prognosis of tick-borne encephalitis morbidity in the Krasnoyarsk Territory: expert and mathematical assessments].
Long-term extrapolative prognosis is presented, which is based on 30-year data on tick-borne encephalitis infection rates in the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Mathematical analysis of many-year ranges was performed later by a maximum entropy method with further frequency filtration, its results allowing to predict the infection rate. Disease rate changes for the last 4 years demonstrated that extrapolative prognosis based both on expert and mathematical assessment (by the entropy maximum method) agreed well with the real data.
Naumov
R L
RL
Zhigal'skiĭ
O A
OA
Gutova
V P
VP
Kilina
A I
AI
Nikulina
E S
ES
D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004675:Encephalitis, Tick-Borne / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D010507:Periodicity; D011379:Prognosis; D012800:Siberia; D013472:Sunlight; D013997:Time Factors
Tsiklichnost' i prognoz zabolevaemosti kleshchevym éntsefalitom v Krasnoiarskom krae, ékspertnaia i matematicheskaia otsenki.