title: The cubic growth of AIDS cases: general dependence on early infection rates and distribution of times to appearance of clinical symptoms.
abstract: An observed cubic dependence on time of the cumulative growth in numbers of AIDS patients is shown to be the leading term of a power series in general. The cubic leading term follows from a nearly model-independent description of the rate of HIV infection, provided only that there is a distribution of incubation times to the appearance of clinically diagnosed AIDS symptoms with a finite initial derivative, that none of those infected exhibit immediate indications of illness, and that the epidemic begins with a finite initial rate of infection.
authors: Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM 87545.
authors: M J
authors: MJ
authors: Harrison
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D008433:Mathematics; D015233:Models, Statistical; D013997:Time Factors