Problems of field testing theoretical models: a case study.
The problems of field-testing models are discussed with reference to a population simulation model for the tsetse fly glossina pallidipes Austen developed by us at Nguruman in southwestern Kenya. Model predictions showed a reasonable fit to the changes in the biconical trap index of population size, but tended to overestimate some changes and underestimate others. A more rigorous test for the model is to manipulate one of the population parameters and compare model predictions with the observed population trends. This revealed that some changes in population size resulted more from fly movement than from changes in mortality rates. Fly movement must therefore be incorporated in the model for it to be a useful tool in the development of appropriate control strategies.
Dransfield
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Brightwell
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D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D007630:Kenya; D015993:Life Tables; D008297:Male; D010865:Pilot Projects; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014370:Tsetse Flies