A method for the estimation of chronic disease morbidity and trends from mortality data.
Measures of chronic degenerative disease diffusion, such as incidence and prevalence rates, are a basic need for epidemiologists and others working in many fields of human sciences. Equations relating death probabilities to incidence and survival probabilities for chronic degenerative diseases are derived from a cohort point of view. A maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation of incidence as a function of time related covariates. When time series of mortality data are available, the model can be used to describe and analyse levels and dynamics of morbidity. A trial application to lung and breast cancer is given for the province of Varese, Italy, where incidence data are available from the Lombardy Cancer Register.
Verdecchia
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Istituto Superiore di Sanita', Rome, Italy.
Capocaccia
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Egidi
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Golini
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D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009017:Morbidity; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011379:Prognosis