title: The analysis of hazards and the hazards of analysis: reflections on air traffic safety management.
abstract: The justification of investments in air traffic control systems has typically been based on risk-benefit analyses of the safety of air traffic. But the lack of empirical evidence concerning collisions between aircraft, and the problems of very small numbers make risk analysis inadequate. The pitfalls of risk analysis are discussed in this paper. A framework for safety analysis is proposed where safety is to be assured rather than traded off in the economic sense against other expenditures on the system. The trade-off in the analysis of large investments on control technologies should be between economy and efficiency and should no include safety.
mesh_terms: D000060:Accidents, Aviation / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D006801:Humans; D011050:Policy Making; D012306:Risk; D013597:Systems Analysis; D014481:United States