Prediction of outcome of anaesthesia in patients over 40 years: a multifactorial risk index.
The prediction of outcome of anaesthesia in patients over 40 years of age was assessed using a multifactorial index based on current preoperative factors recorded prospectively. The study was conducted using a representative sample of anaesthetizations (except for cardiac surgery) including 517 cases with major complication (occurring during or within 24 hours of anaesthesia) and a one in fifty random sample comprising 1538 cases without complication. A split sample approach was adopted and a logistic regression model was applied to two subsets of similar size. Four preoperative factors were significantly associated with the occurrence of complications: ASA physical status, age, surgical procedure (major/minor) and type (elective/emergency). Goodness-of-fit of the model was assessed using another sample of 332 cases with complication and a different subset of 987 cases without complication. The model fitted the data well (p = 0.15).
Tiret
L
L
Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Unité 164, Villejuif, France.
Hatton
F
F
Desmonts
J M
JM
Vourc'h
G
G
D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000758:Anesthesia / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012306:Risk