title: The University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment Study. I: Rationale and content.
abstract: This article presents the rationale and content of a current study that seeks to improve methods to identify children at high risk to dental caries. It summarizes the results of the development of a 12-factor, preliminary caries prediction model based on data derived from the National Preventive Demonstration Program. Despite data limitations, the model produced a sensitivity of .5 and specificity of .8 for four-year caries increment prediction in first- and fifth-grade children. Data on a number of additional potential predictors are being collected in two sites to expand and improve the existing model. These factors are identified.
authors.affiliation: Department of Dental Ecology, School of Dentistry, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 27514.
authors.forename: J W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Stamm
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Disney
authors.forename: R C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Graves
authors.forename: H M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Bohannan
authors.forename: J R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Abernathy
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology* / Q000382:microbiology; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008281:Maine; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013022:South Carolina; D013295:Streptococcus mutans / Q000502:physiology; D014094:Tooth, Deciduous